Interesting Parity in my modern machines.

[p.opus]

A week or two back, I was in a discussion with others on this forums about the differences in "lite" and "normal" models of pachinko machines and how even though the "lite" versions paid out more frequently, Lower odds => More frequent payouts but lower Jackpots Higher odds => less frequent payouts but higher jackpots. Despite these differences, overall the machines were all set to payout identically in the long run.

I was feeling a little sad because while I love my Yamato machine, I was convinced it was "tougher" because it was so hard to "get ahead". My Star Wars, I was convinced was much more loose because I had won so much more on it. So I decided to pit each machine in a 10000 ball challenge to see how close they would come. I wasn't sure what an adequate sample size would be but I figured 10000 balls would give us a large enough sample to note a trend.

Here's some Stats for my Yamato And Star Wars Machine:

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[TR] [TD]Model Name[/TD] [TD]Yamato[/TD] [TD]Star Wars[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]2007[/TD] [TD]2005[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Manufacturer[/TD] [TD]Fuji[/TD] [TD]Sankyo[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bonus Odds[/TD] [TD]1/99.3[/TD] [TD]1/496.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kakuhen (Big Bonus) Continuation Percentage[/TD] [TD]65%[/TD] [TD]68%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bonus Rounds[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Minimum Payout Door duration per round[/TD] [TD]8 balls[/TD] [TD]9 balls[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Payout door payout per winning ball[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Minimum Total Bonus Payout[/TD] [TD]560[/TD] [TD]2025[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Post Bonus Chance Mode duration[/TD] [TD]30 spins[/TD] [TD]100 spins[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Balls per "Wing" pocket hit[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR]

The specs of these two machines couldn't have been more different. The Yamato clearly being a low odds "lite machine" and the Star Wars, a typical "high odds" "heavy machine".

The Yamato was clearly the odds favorite to enter a bonus round by a factor of 5, but lagged behind by nearly a factor of 4 on total payout each bonus round, had 3% less chance of continuing in Kakuhen mode. In chance mode, the Yamato was clearly outmatched only lasting less than 1/3 the number of spins the Star Wars did.

Also the Star Wars machine had the advantage of having a 5 ball "tulip" vs a 3 ball tulip which makes a huge difference in chance mode. The Star Wars also had two start pockets not counting the "tulip" and 4 10 ball non-spin pockets, whereas the Yamato had only 1 start pocket, 3 10 ball non-spin pockets and a 5 ball non spin pocket.

Overall, I gave the Star Wars an edge because the bonus rounds and playfield elements were tilted in it's favor. I Did not realize how close the actual numbers would turn out.

Here are the numbers
Balls Shot: 10000
Balls Won Yamato: 10605
Balls Won Star Wars: 10896

The Star Wars barely edged out the Yamato machine by less than 3 percent. My impression was the Star Wars was much more loose, but this did not turn out to be the case. I failed to remember those long dry spells between bonus rounds. It's the dry spell that made it so close. Had the Yamato had but one additional fever round, it would have edged out the Star Wars. Of course a Star Wars fever would have heavily skewed the numbers in the Star Wars favor.

It's apparent that pachinko manufactuers have honed this out to a science, and it appears that regardless of the type of machine you play or who makes it, you're going to get similar payouts. Like another person mentioned, however, it still all comes down to the house nail bender. The machines themselves appear to ship out of the box with very similar characteristics, and some luck and a talented nail bender is going to play the biggest role in whether or not you walk out with a wad of cash or without a shirt on your back.

[p.opus]

My table screwed up. Don't know how to fix.

[hanabi]

My table screwed up. Don't know how to fix.

I can try fixing it later, but right now I'm busy with the PT FF Live Draft!!

or you could post again with the correct table format and I'll edit / merge it later

[p.opus]

I'll repost without a table a little later.

[p.opus]

Hey Guys...Just ignore this thread...I was babbling, screwed up a table, and after looking at it, it's not worth fixing.

Short story...Yamato and StarWars machines within 3% of each other after 10000 balls. Big fat harry deal...

[heima]

This got me thinking of the psychology of playing. With the lite odds of the star wars, I would be winning more often. If I went to pachinko for the entertainment, this would be ideal for me. However, if it paid out too often, with the same kind of experience, I might bore of it easily.

With the heavy odds of the yamato, a fever would be hard to come by, and frustration would ensue. If I had the addictive gambler's mindset (just one more play, its just gotta win) then this would be the machine for me, as there is a certain masochism with that addiction, and the huge payout would be like an orgasm.

Fortunately, I am not a gambler, so I think that a smaller payout at about maybe 1/200 odds might be perfect. Something that entertains me all the while. If I walk away with even money, I am happy. If I pocket enough yen for bus fare home, then all the better.

I guess it is my upbringing of earning a dollar through work, not luck.

[p.opus]

To be honest, the Yamato is "more fun" to play because I can almost guarantee that I will get a bonus round each time I sit down at 1/99.3 odds. But the machine does not have quite the Kakuhen continuation probability so I end up with more single bonus rounds followed by chance time. This makes the machine a little difficult to get ahead on.

The Star Wars machine when it hits, (1/496.5) is massive fun because the machine just spills oddles of balls and has a high Kakuhen continuation probability. So when it does hit, it's normally not a one off and you are going to walk a way a pretty big winner. But the flip side of that...LONG DRY SPELLS between bonus rounds.

[heima]

Oops, guess I got the two mixed up.

[jodini]

Regardless P.Opus, it's an interesting thread. I think it would be interesting if we all had a Pachinko competition with our machines to look at payouts (if not just for fun)! Each person gets 1000 balls and then measures what payout they get. Max...you can even do your single shot!

[p.opus]

Regardless P.Opus, it's an interesting thread. I think it would be interesting if we all had a Pachinko competition with our machines to look at payouts (if not just for fun)! Each person gets 1000 balls and then measures what payout they get. Max...you can even do your single shot!

I can almost tell you up front how it will turn out based on my experience alone.

First Place will go to a Hanemono most of the time. Since the Hanemono is a skill-shot machine, 1000 balls is more than enough to hit at least one fever and the Hanemono will own a vintage if it goes into fever mode. Even Hanemonos that have a reduced jackpot ,like all 11 or all 15 will own a vintage if it hits one fever and many times with a skill shot machine, you can often fever twice within the first 1000 balls. However if you don't fever at least once, a vintage on a streak will sneak up on you and nail ya.

Second Place will go to a vintage. Vintages are the "tortoises" in this foot race. They don't have the ability to quickly rack up huge numbers of moderns, but they rarely rack up the losses either. They will be outrun by nearly every machine out there. But, the newer moderns have built in odds stacked against them. And, in most cases 1000 balls is not sufficient to overcome these odds. Therefore, most of the time a Vintage will outlast a modern, except for Hanemonos.

Third place will go to a Yupachi Modern. A yupachi machine will have odds of approximately 1/100. This means that you should bonus within 100 spins. But to get 100 spins within a 1000 ball challenge, you have to average a spin every 10 balls which is pretty tough. In order for a Yupachi to overcome a Hanemono, you'll need to get at least two bonuses. If the Yupachi has a good continuation percentage, then you can do it. If a Yupachi doesn't fever, then you'll end up with the short end of the stick. The only reason this machine isn't dead last, is that you at least have better odds to get a fever during the first 1000 balls, so you have a better shot of winning than a standard machine.

Last place will normally go to a normal (heavy) modern. These are the true "hares" of the race. If you hit a bonus, you leave all others in the dust!!! No other pachinko machine has the ability to win so many balls within a 1000 ball challenge. However, the odd's for most heavy's (greater than 1/200) means that the machine won't fever within that time. The small payouts for the start pocket and other pockets (3 balls for start and 10 balls for non start), means that you won't even sniff a vintage in payout rate if you don't bonus.

So if I had to bring a machine to a smackdown, it would be my 1981 Hit Parade Hanemono. It's an all-11. I can smoke a vintage most of the time, and since I'm not tied down to preset odds, I would be able to challenge most of the late moderns as well.