kentucky Derby--any hot tips!!!!!

[luckydog]

my buddy and i are going down to the dog track tomorrow to watch and bet on the kentucky derby.

does anybody have any good tips?????

afleet alex is my main choice.

[logicprobe]

Lucky... have you ever seen the movie "Longshot" with Tim Conway?

You gots to bet on da one dat eats da chili peppers, man.

[RKnarr01]

Bellamy Road

[Tulsa]

Stay away from Steinbrenners horse. The way the Yankees are going this horse will break a leg in the first turn.

[RKnarr01]

with how the yankees are losing the horse has to win

[Lddrizzt]

Bet on the fastest one.

[Utopia1dc]

Here's a hot tip for you. Bet $2 on all entries, then you are sure to win?

[RKnarr01]

I would like to go and bet on the horses tommorow but i dont know how, i tried once and it was too confusing:confused:

[luckydog]

2.00 to win 1 st place
2.00 to place 1st or 2nd place
2.00 to show 1st, 2nd or 3rd place
2.00 quinella first two horses any order
1.00 trifecta box cost 6.00 first 3 horses any order, pays 1/2 of trifecta payout.

[RKnarr01]

Luckydog

if i wanted to bet 100 for steinbrenners horse to win first place would i just go to the box and tell them 100 on that horse to win 1st?

[Utopia1dc]

Luckydog

if i wanted to bet 100 for steinbrenners horse to win first place would i just go to the box and tell them 100 on that horse to win 1st?

Rk-

That is correct, but if you feel that strong on the horse you may want to cover yourself. Bet $50 to win and $50 to show. Just my opinion, if you feel that strong on the horse, that way you still get something if he finishes 2nd or 3rd.

[luckydog]

yes, but the payoff right now is 5-2.

so you wound win 250.00 if the odds don't change.
bellamy road is number 16 near the outside. that number could change if some are scratched.
his manager says he doesn't like horses around him, he likes them behind him.

[wmas1960]

Times a runnin out but here is what I do. I toss the favorites. Not enough out of it for the money. If I am going to gamble, I am going to take some chances. I am kind of inexperienced at it all but, A few things to think of. I take chances when track is especially fast, sloppy.... If it is Cold or Rainy... Some best horses might not have their best day on extreme conditions. Others might actually do better, and get some chances when the favs hit adverse conditions. The derby, as I understand it is 1 1/4 mile. I think I read that none of these horses have ever raced that far. Most, from what I noticed, have run 1 1/8th at this point. Thus, they have to push it another 1/8th of a mile. Might not sound like much but take a horse that shows late speed but only comes out 2nd. And a horse that comes in first by a nose and has been slowing in the last part of the stretch. If the 2nd place horse had only had another 1/8th of a mile in a previous race it might have beat the winner. So, look at the times and the positions at the different points during the race. Historically, I think, favorites don't win the derby that often. Thus, the derby is a good place to bet on some unproven potential.

To sum up, I usually pick from the horses with odds around 8-1 to 12 or 15-1. I read their performances and times and see if there is any possibliity that one could have a good day and shine. Also, look at the jockey. Sometimes the jockey can make all the difference.

Went out to Arlington Park this morning and got my tickets. Don't recall the names of the horses that I picked but one was 15-1 and the other 2 were 12-1 according to the Churchill odds from a couple days ago. I did a $5 tri-box on them then picked one of them and did a $10 win show on it. <5 minutes to Post....>>

OH, one other thing. Stay away from horses that are running on the rail, unless they historically show early speed and have the performance or endurance to last. If they don't get out fast, they get choked off by all the others at the first turn and end up at the rear. Takes a lot for them to get back out front. Also, avoid horses, in a large field (many horses) that are on the outside. Again, if they don't show early speed they can end up behind because they have to cut in more to get in front of the other horses. As I have noticed, Horses toward the middle of the pack often have an easier time.

[d mowery]

Just bet - on the bob tailed nag - and as I leave a good tip which is " Don't bet on the ponies "

[wmas1960]

Probably late for those betting the derby but for the Preakness or Belmont, or other betting opportunities, When betting tell the teller Track, (churchill) Race# (10th), Amount of bet($$$), Type of bet,(Tri-Box, Win, Place, Show, Win-Show Accross the board (win place and show)...) then the numbers for your horse(s) as printed in the track program.

ie., Churchill 10th $5 Tri-Box 4,6,9

[logicprobe]

From Sports Illustrated:

Giacomo
Odds: 50-1
Post Position: 10
Jockey: Mike Smith

Grey horse last won a race when he broke his maiden in October and finished a flat fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. It's hard to imagine why he's in the race, except that his owners clearly have a case of Derby Fever.


I guess nobody told the horse that he wasn't any good.

A longshot pulls it out.

[luckydog]

well i'm out 34.00, my buddy is out 50.00.

a horse nobody thought had a chance won!!!!!!

i picked 6 long shots to show, but number 10 wasn't one of them.

[logicprobe]

Another longshot was 2nd... have that one?

[wmas1960]

Had you picked the Trifecta on this one, you would have won, Apprx. $133,000.00 for a $2 bet.

[Tony Junior]

Had you picked the Trifecta on this one, you would have won, Apprx. $133,000.00 for a $2 bet.

Holy mackrel! That's a lot of pachis!

Guess it's too late to bet that Trifecta, huh.